Ro_Patel
Buyback Blackout window closing rapidly & won't reopen until Nov 1
Over the past decade, aggressive share buybacks outpaced new issuance, driving a steady "de-equitisation" of US markets that added +0.7% annually to equity returns from 2015 to 2025
However, this tailwind is reaching a near-term inflection point. A surging wave of AI IPOs, fresh equity offerings from established tech names, temporary buyback pullbacks by hyperscalers funding heavy CapEx, & insider selling threaten to shift market dynamics from structural share scarcity to an abundance of new supply
Note: Hyperscaler FCF conversion & buyback auth levels are projected to recover by FY28 as AI CapEx intensity normalizes. In the interim, semiconductor & AI hardware vendors—the primary beneficiaries of current infrastructure spend—are poised to pick up the baton as key drivers of tech-sector share repurchases
$PKW $NVDA $AAPL $JPM $MU
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