MRP Millrose Properties, Inc.

🚨 Everyone is worried about circular financing in AI while COMPLETELY missing what is happening in the housing market right now. The nation’s 2nd largest homebuilder is now selling its inventory to its own spinoff. According to Hunterbrook, Millrose Properties ($MRP) bought more than 700 Lennar ($LEN) homes across 15 states for roughly $200 million in about a month. Here’s what's really going on: Lennar spun off Millrose in 2025 as part of its move toward an asset-light business model. Rather than keeping large amounts of land on its balance sheet, Lennar could buy finished lots from Millrose as it needed them. Millrose would hold and develop the land, earning recurring returns for providing that capital. Lennar could then focus on building and selling homes. But an August 27 agreement amendment added another business: Buying completed homes and operating them as rentals. So the company supplying Lennar with land can now also buy the finished houses. The timing is what makes this particularly interesting. Hunterbrook identified at least 356 purchases in the final week of Lennar’s fiscal third quarter. Lennar reported 20,840 deliveries against a forecast starting at 20,500. Subtract those purchases and deliveries would have been 20,484, below its target. Selling homes to Millrose can move inventory off Lennar’s books and support reported deliveries... But investors need to understand how much of that volume depends on this closely connected buyer. Then there are the rental economics. Hunterbrook estimates the homes could generate approximately 5% annually after property operating expenses, BEFORE financing and corporate costs. Millrose’s recent bond offering carried interest rates of 6.5%–6.75%. If those estimates are accurate, homes financed entirely at those rates would earn less operating income than their interest expense (yikes). The companies also remain closely connected. Hunterbrook reports that Lennar supplied 72% of Millrose’s revenue last quarter, while Lennar CEO Stuart Miller holds approximately 43% of Millrose’s voting power. All of this comes while Lennar’s business is already under pressure. Its latest quarterly results showed: • New orders down 9% • Deliveries down 3% • Average selling price falling to $372,000 from $383,000 • Home-sales gross margin falling to 15.8% from 17.5% • Net earnings declining to $284 million from $591 million Management said incentives averaged approximately 12% and lowered its full-year delivery target to 80,000–81,000 homes from 82,000–83,000. Lennar cited higher mortgage rates, weaker affordability, and deteriorating market conditions. $LEN is now down 38% in the last year. $MRP is down 25% in the last year.

$MRP What a battle it will be to get back up to $32 but I loaded up on the bottom so I get paid to wait.

$MRP if you know about this stock (which not many retail investors do) you should be loading the boat / price is insanely low!

$MRP Bought more yesterday and will be buying more today. “Falling knife” has fallen enough. Great company with great dividend!

$MRP I bought the dip. Short sellers lie. That is their trade. While it is true mrp bought some houses to rent, the idea it is some kind of crime is ridiculous. I trust my knowledge that short sellers are never to be believed because they are people of low character. See Andrew Left.

$MRP They are walking this one down. How low does this go, is the question. Well, I'm taking advantage of the gift and adding to my position. The lower the share price, the more I'll add. Thank you market makers.

$MRP look forward to the earnings call on the 27th - should be lively! If in fact it is a limited one-off “rent to own” program to help buyers during this period of higher interest rates, the economics of the rent to own could be more favorable than initially thought - and not a fundamental shift in the business plan. We’ll also get an update on the Dream/Beazer merger which will dilute our dependence on Lennar AND provide a new impressive run rate of free cashflow (I expect a $4 dividend in 2027). Do your own due diligence, but if that is all true, this stock is very, very undervalued in my opinion.

$MRP Short term trade entered Half position with another half waiting at $28.84 Stop below recent swing at $27.70 Take profit 1 at $31.46 Take profit 2 at $34

$MRP This stock is at very attractive levels and it has robust fundamentals. I love it very much at these levels (NFA).

$MRP LEN got smashed -6.6% two days ago on this "shady" housing thing with MRP. They have no incentive to continue this new rental thing because it hurts them worse than MRP. That is assuming it is shady, which it may not be. It may be a legit new revenue stream. I really don't know. But I am long and staying that way. Sunlight has cured the issue, in my opinion, if there was one.

$MRP the short seller article is sort of a nuisance issue in the big scheme of things but MRP management should address it and move on. Does not change the book value of the asset they hold, nor does it change the free cashflow that this investment throws off. And for those who would like further diversification from Lannar, that is coming in Q4 with the Dreamfinders/Beazer $1.25 billion investment. So if you’re a trader maybe you pause?, long term investors should be loading!!!

$MRP The nation's second-largest homebuilder is struggling to sell houses. So it found a buyer it previously owned: Millrose Properties, which gets most of its revenue from Lennar and counts Lennar's CEO as its largest voting shareholder. Contrary to the plans in its initial SEC filings, Millrose has now bought an estimated $200 million of Lennar homes in about a month and is renting them out at what appears to be a loss. For investors, this may obfuscate the true lack of demand for Lennar's homes. For families in these developments, it means more rentals next door and, some homeowners worry, lower resale values.

$MRP This is either the best reit buy in the market or there is more bad news to come. I can't say which, except LEN tanked 6.7% the other day on the news, so they have no incentive to continue this rental program with MRP, unless it is accretive somehow. LEN tanked harder than if they had just left the unsold homes on the books. The incentives are for the program to end or to be revealed as accretive to MRP.

$MRP the fed today said they are going to increase rates that’s bad for the stock it’s gonna go down to $15. No one’s buying homes and we are going into a recession. $LEN $MGM

$MRP This is getting murdered. TRUMP is hellbent on letting inflation ride higher. It’s complicated but there’s reasons why he thinks that the best route long term. This also means rates are going up which is awful for home builders and obviously MRP. Now also throw into the mix the rumblings coming out of Russia of a really nasty disease and markets flip out over it. MRP is a buy at some point. Maybe it’s now. But I think it’s later. Let’s see how rates behave in the next 6 months.

$MRP Get short......issue short thesis with very convincing data with theories that may or may not be accurate....and then cover. Its a profitable business. Scumbags

$MRP Added First entry @ 25$ that dividend is too Juicy. Added First entry on $INTU aswell @ 278$ 😂 Ty for shares!

$MRP I hoovered a lot of shares of what I hope will be the bottom, Short attack is done with and life goes on. We will see if we have a gold nugget in the bottom of the pan as things become clearer.

$MRP Did not hold the $28 that I was previously looking to trade off of. Could be seeing another opportunity present itself soon with a massive HTF flip zone in play. If we take liquidity at $26.30 and reclaim , I'll be looking for a trade to $28.50 then $30, risking that $26.30 low.

$MRP I stand corrected. There is a housing shortage in the north still but not so much in the south of America. There’s a surplus down here. Where do they own most of their land? If north and not in Texas and Florida that’s really good news for this stock.