UVV Universal Corp.

$UVV — The setup is getting interesting 🌱📈 Q1 was ugly: revenue -12% YoY, tobacco operating income -90%, EPS -$0.20. But the problem is mainly tobacco oversupply, not collapsing demand. FY2026 production surged: • Flue-cured ex-China +28% • Burley +54% Now FY2027 production is projected to fall: • Flue-cured ~3% • Burley ~16% Even more interesting: UVV’s uncommitted tobacco inventory fell from ~27% to ~24%. Management targets ≤20%. If we see inventory ↓, customer commitments ↑, shipments ↑ and tobacco margins recover, today’s depressed earnings could prove to be the trough. Management expects tobacco shipments to be heavily weighted toward H2 FY2027. Add a substantial dividend while we wait. I’m not betting on more smokers. I’m betting on the tobacco supply cycle normalizing. The key question: Was Q1 the bottom? NFA.$MO $PM $BTI