SMH VanEck Semiconductor ETF

$SMH - semis with a 50-day high, showing incredible resilience this week. Every small dip was bought.

markets giving you a taste of how nervous and tied they are to Open AI pump some nasty reversals $SMH $QQQ $SPY

$SMH buying dips above a rising 40wk moving average is often sensible. If semis get going again, prepare for the "but it's only 10 stocks propping up the market" brigade to get a little louder. 18% of the S&P and 35% of the Nasdaq 100. $SPY $QQQ

BTIG's KRINSKY: "The SOX continues to track extremely close to the boom/bust cycle Of the 2000 peak in an uncanny fashion. This would imply we are about at the and embarking on a slower drawn-out decline over the next several months." $SMH $DRAM $SOXL

$SMH $SOXX Well, hello there SMH bearish engulfing weekly candle. Welcome to the show. Needless to say, next week's candle is ULTRA IMPORTANT. $SOXS $SOXL

$SMH $SPY $QQQ Keep it simple into EOY. Stay with tech themes. Don't go chasing laggards because they won't work. You need real earnings growth to overcome a +5% 10yr and rising rates.

$SMH $700+ by end of year. Keep it simple and stick to the trends. Chips don't care about the 10yr or oil.

The biggest near-term risk for AI stocks is not earnings; it is the market discounting a potential change in balance of power in the House and Senate. We would see that in $SMH if there's a concern.

$SMH 80% of my money is in these. $VOO $QQQ $VGT XLK. 10% AMZN, MSFT NVDA GOOG LILY . Took some losses over the years on stupid bets. 28-31% CAGR since 2017.

$SMH this past week, the Yearly R3 #pivotpoint was strong resistance! 🎯 Looking for support at the Qrtly #pivot point QP. 👀 $SOXL $SOXX

“Only buy a stock if you would be perfectly happy holding it if the stock market were to close for 5-10 years…” - Warren Buffett Good luck $SMH $HYG $XLF $VIX $QQQ

$SMH - Fun Fact If Semis were a standalone SECTOR of the S&P 500 it would be the 2nd largest...behind $XLK It has a 6% larger weighting than the 2nd largest sector $XLF

$SMH +1.5% $617.83 $SOXL +4.1% ~$154 | Long $111.50 (Sep 4) +$42.50 / +38.1%. Full size. No trims. Stop trailed to $127.8. $600.50 was last week’s break. Today is another day holding above it: low $607.25, close $617.83. Path from here is the prior highs, $650–$672. 50MA under price started curling up this week. That is the new tell. RS ratio +8.5%, first reading like that since June. Momentum leading at +16.2%, not seen since April. Volume on the dry side. Holding above $600 matters for momentum. Holding above $580 matters for the trend.

It’s trying to feel like the good old days again. Semiconductors & Equipment are back at the top of the 1-month highs breadth list. $SMH $SOXX

$SMH +4.0% $596.03 $SOXL +15.9% $141.93 | Long $111.50 (Sep 4) +$30.43 / +27.3%. Stop was moved to breakeven $111.50 - now $121.5 Aug 24 I called $SMH a house of pain and said stay open-minded for rotation. Rotation showed up and $578 close was the first real tell. Today is the second. Pattern: rounding base / inverse H&S - Neckline was the $575–$585 band (falling 50MA + the August shelf). That broke. MY Momentum indicator +10.5% leading the 50 day RS ratio which flip positive. Volume only +5%, but above average for the first time since July 31, Will be nice to see it expanding in order for the $600 level to stick. Next supply: $605-615 (August LH), then $640–$672.

There are two very different equity markets hiding inside the same indexes. Which one are you trading? $SMH

Industry ETFs ranked by price strength and price momentum as of the Sep. 24 close: $SMH

Chop chop huckleberries $SMH is da 🧠leader🐑 group n after this Thursday 🐑 low it’s $SITM pretty.

President Trump just said the Department of Justice will rein in AI “if we have to” according to CNBC. $SMH $NVDA $QQQ

$SMH trying to break vwap AH. Be interesting to see how AH closes and price discovery overnight. I think fake pump and $SOXS short. With a tight stop. But also I like to sleep. We will see