BTC321
$NVAX WHAT A MAASSSSSIIIIIIIIIVE BEAT !!! 🚨🚨 $NVAX JUST RAISED GUIDANCE BY $145 MILLION 🚨🚨
From $235–275M → $385–415M. 💥
Midpoint up to $400 MILLION. That’s not a tweak. That’s a +53% move at the midpoint in ONE quarter. 📈
And they put the $125M Sanofi milestone right in the 2026 framework as its own line. Not 2027. THIS YEAR. ✅
Now the print 👇
Q3 revenue: $68M. Consensus was $50.61M (Zacks). 🎯
EPS: −$0.19. Street was looking for −$0.22 to −$0.33. Beat on BOTH. 🎯🎯
Net loss: $31.4M.
Last year same quarter: $202.4M. 🤯
That is a $171 MILLION improvement. Year over year. Same quarter.
Product sales +91%. 🔥
AND THEY JUST OPENED THE BOOKS ON THE ROYALTIES 📖
For the first time, all three are on the table:
💰 Nuvaxovid: HIGH TEENS to LOW TWENTIES percent of Sanofi’s global net sales
💰 Takeda Japan: MID-TO-HIGH TEENS percent + an annual milestone, every season
💰 Future CIC: high single digits to sub-teens
Go read that first line again. Approaching twenty percent. Of Sanofi’s global sales. For doing nothing. No factory. No sales force. No trial budget. 🧊
AND THE MATRIX-M ECONOMICS, PER VACCINE 👀
Up to $200 MILLION in launch and sales milestones — for every single new Matrix-M vaccine — plus mid-single-digit royalties for TWENTY YEARS. ⏳
Not once. Per vaccine. Four of the top 10 global pharma companies are already holding a licence or an MTA. 🤝
STILL QUEUED ON TOP:
💵 $75M — tech transfer, mid-2027
💵 $225M — first US commercial sale of CIC
💵 Pfizer — royalties and milestones already inside the 2026 framework
Honest bit, because I don’t do one-sided: the Sanofi line printed $19M vs $48M. Somebody will wave that around today. It’s down because R&D reimbursements fell $42M — accounting, not demand. And CIC royalties come at a lower rate than Nuvaxovid’s. Both true. Neither changes the guidance raise.
Cash: $627M — and the $125M hasn’t landed yet. 💵
Call at 8:30am ET. 📞
They raised the year by $145 million and beat on earnings while the whole market said COVID was dead.
I like the stock. 🚀
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