cavis
$NUTX into Q3:
Earnings. Q2 diluted EPS $9.38 vs $4.95 consensus, an 89% beat. Even excluding the one-time $52M accrual release, clean EPS was ~$5.80, above the Street. H1 operating income $203M, up 78% YoY. Operating cash flow $110M in six months. Trailing EPS: $25.24.
Valuation. Closed $205.01 on Oct 8. That's 8.1x trailing and 7.9x forward earnings. Peers: Tenet 12.4x forward, HCA 14.5x, Encompass 19.0x. B. Riley raised its target to $325 on Sept 4. Five analysts, all Buy, average target $283, median $300.
Balance sheet. $205M cash against $40M of conventional debt (the hospital buildings sit in finance leases, as with any operator). Buyback retired 4.4% of shares in six months, 7.09M to 6.84M. The earn-out dilution overhang is finished: the Aug 4 count including every remaining issuable share is 6,847,973, about 4,000 above outstanding.
Positioning. Short interest 1,234,054 shares at the Sept 15 settlement, highest in the stock's history: 18% of shares outstanding, 29.8% of a 4.15M float, 7.5 days to cover. Shorts added 71,553 shares in the exact two weeks the stock ran to all-time highs. No listed options exist on NUTX. The only way out of a short is the tape.
Track record. 8 of the last 11 reports were followed by an up session, median +13%. Every clean quarter with an EPS beat, 8 of 8, closed higher the next day. All three down reactions involved a filing issue, none a fundamental miss.
Growth. 28 facilities in 12 states, 7 more in development through 2027, 3-5 openings per year. $5-6M capex each, cash-flow positive within year one, with a board-approved sale-leaseback model to fund future builds.
The company shrinks the float every quarter. The shorts grow their position every settlement.
Long NUTX.
See you after the report in Nov.
7
