BOLT Bolt Biotherapeutics Inc

$BOLT Blowing past 50 and 100 day SMA for no reason? Unlikely. I think news is within days / or weeks tops. Likely RM and/or asset sale. I doubt we make it to Nov data release.

$BOLT I don't think the lease re-negotiation is telling of an option either way. Even if good data their plan is to partner and they currently don't need that much space and financial overhang of a 23m lease liability until 2031. This lease re-negotiation is needed either way. Options are still the same: Option A). Data is good. PIPE financing/partner. Stock pops and company continues through Dec 2027 in current lease and re-negotiates lease after. Price $10+ imo. Option B). Data is mixed. I say 'mixed' instead of bad because bad data would mean safety is a problem. I think the safety hurdle has been overcome by the step-up dosing. It's now a question of efficacy. In August "To date, BDC-4182 has been well tolerated, and we are seeing activity consistent with our immune-stimulating mechanism". The drug clearly is working and safe, just a question of how well. 'Mixed' data would like warrant one of two sub options.

$BOLT Either way its a good deal. Even if they could raise 75-100M it would be stupid to try to use that much space again. They would burn through the cash without having much new data. IMO even with moderate to good data they will not be able to raise more than 50 million..and they currently run at probably lowest possible cash burn possible. 50 million more cash will give them less than 1 year runway if they hire a few people to accelerate development. They need to save money were possible, even if data is good. If data is bad they have more cash.

$BOLT Data likely in 4-6 weeks tops. Management and B.O.D. have major incentive for price to go $10+ . CEO Quinn alone has 25k common shares + 100k options with strike price in 5-6/share range. Good BDC-4182 and this moons above $10 imo. If data is underwhelming, likely will announce reverse merger/strategic transaction. I'm continually loading at these levels as either scenario seems downside limited.

$BOLT I seriously suspect they already know the outcome of the clinical trial! why would they start doing research on BDC-3042 again.. when they said everyone focussed on BDC-4182??? its adds 0 value when you have limited cash lasting for 4-5 months!

$BOLT restructured its lease agreement, paying $1 million and moving the lease end to Dec 31, 2027.

$BOLT Current Assets $20.5M - $10.5M Total Liabilities (replacing lease liabilities with $4.5M) - $7.5M July to Sept. Cash Burn - 1M Payment to landlord - 1.5M Landlord letter of credit - 1.5 Severance/wind down expenses + 10M Nasdaq Shell with 1.9M shares gives a NCAV of ~ $4.47 per share. Question that remains that affects this is how much operational cash burn will occur in Q4. Each million is about $0.52 per share.

$BOLT I was flipping this from last few weeks! sold again today in $4.20 s after buying at $3.32! still bearish on this because of mgmt!! reverse merger is the only hope if someone is holding.

$BOLT Mark my words.. this will drop to $2-2.20 range by next month. 1. Citadel Advisors long position last month (sizeable to daily volume) to short is the biggest scam. 2. Look at mgmt compensation in filings! they are taking salaries as if this company is worth $250M +!! Can you believe their compensation more than current mkt cap! 3. Won’t deny they are attempting for reverse merger. But, definitely not for shareholder benefit, in-fact it is for getting board position in the merged company. 4. Look at the stock price since ipo in 2021.. not even single material spike!! This itself shows that they were focusing more on robbing that $500M cash, which is now $17M!

$BOLT Current Assets $20.5M - $14M Liabilities (assumption: they will be able to cancel their lease for a $5M termination fee) - $7.5M Cash burn with 1.9M shares gives a floor of around $3.20 PPS. Potentially upside both in the case of good upcoming data or bad data and strategic alternatives. Added some here, hoping to add more in the future.

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