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SPY is trending due to news of a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell by the Department of Justice, which Powell claims is political retaliation aimed at pressuring the Fed to lower interest rates. This unprecedented situation has sparked widespread debate among the community, with many anticipating significant market volatility over concerns about Fed independence, while others view it as a potential buying opportunity.

Invesco Capital Management LLC - Invesco QQQ Trust Series 1

QQQ is experiencing heightened volatility amidst significant geopolitical and domestic policy concerns stemming from former President Trump's actions. The community is abuzz with fears of a market downturn following a criminal probe targeting Fed Chair Powell, viewed as a direct threat to the Fed's independence, alongside international tensions around Venezuela and Greenland. Investors are sharply divided between those predicting a substantial market correction and others looking for dip-buying opportunities in the tech-heavy index.

Uniting the six native Japanese dog breeds. Kendu is the keeper of peace, the preserver of life, and the protector of unity. Join the pack!!

Kendu

KENDU is trending due to its passionate community consistently building a permissionless brand with tangible real-world products like Kendu Spice and Kendu Energy, which sets it apart in the crypto space. The conversation highlights KENDU as a long-term conviction play, with community members focused on relentless building and organic growth across multiple blockchains.

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SPDR Gold Shares ETF

GLD is actively discussed as news circulates about a criminal investigation into Fed Chair Jerome Powell, which many in the community interpret as a significant challenge to Federal Reserve independence and a driver of currency debasement. This development, alongside ongoing geopolitical uncertainties and concerns about US debt, is fueling strong safe-haven demand for gold. While some anticipate further price surges, others highlight an overbought market and potential selling pressure from upcoming commodity index rebalancing.

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp. engages in operating social media and in the technology business. Its brands include TRUTH Social, TMTG+ and TMTG News. The company was founded on March 28, 2024 and is headquartered in Sarasota, FL.

Trump Media & Technology Group Corp.

Trump Media & Technology Group is trending as community discussion centers on an unprecedented Department of Justice subpoena targeting Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, igniting intense debate over the Fed's independence and political influence on monetary policy. This development, alongside recent foreign policy discussions, is drawing strong opinions from supporters who see the actions as justified, and critics who view them as political maneuvers impacting market sentiment.

Applied Digital Corp. is a technology company, which engages in the provision of development and operation of data centers which provide computing power. It operates through the Data Center Hosting Business and HPC Hosting Business segments. The Data Center Hosting Business segment provides energized infrastructure services to crypto mining customers. The HPC Hosting Business segment focuses on the designing, constructing, and operating data centers tailored to support high power density applications like HPC and AI. The company was founded by Wesley Carl Cummins and Jason Zhang in May 2001 and is headquartered in Dallas, TX.

Applied Digital Corporation

Applied Digital (APLD) is experiencing significant upward momentum driven by recent strong earnings, which validated its high-margin HPC lease economics. The community is buzzing with bullish sentiment, fueled by anticipation of imminent new hyperscaler lease announcements, a potential ChronoScale spin-off, and analyst target upgrades, including a notable $99 forecast. This surge is amplified by a prominent short-squeeze narrative, as retail and institutional investors alike recognize APLD's pivotal role in the expanding AI data center infrastructure market.

SSgA Active Trust - SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF

DIA is trending due to immediate market reactions to geopolitical developments, specifically US actions in Venezuela, alongside discussions around potential credit card interest rate caps by the Trump administration. The community is sharply divided, with some viewing these events as bullish catalysts propelling the Dow to new highs, while others express significant concern about market stability and potential underlying vulnerabilities. This creates a broader conversation about the sustainability of the current rally amidst unpredictable policy shifts and external pressures.

Hims & Hers Health, Inc. operates a telehealth consultation platform. It connects consumers to healthcare professionals, enabling them to access medical care for mental health, sexual health, dermatology and primary care. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquartered in San Francisco, CA.

Hims & Hers Health Inc - Ordinary Shares - Class A

Hims & Hers Health Inc

Hims & Hers Health is experiencing significant downward pressure following news of Amazon Pharmacy offering branded GLP-1 weight-loss medications at competitive prices and an analyst downgrade citing overoptimistic future estimates. The community is sharply divided, with bears emphasizing increased competition and regulatory concerns, while bulls point to the company's diversified telehealth platform, vertical integration, and long-term growth in personalized healthcare. The central discussion revolves around HIMS' ability to maintain its competitive edge and profitability within a rapidly evolving healthcare market.

EchoStar Corp. engages in the design, development, and distribution of digital set-top boxes and products for direct-to-home satellite service providers. It operates through the following business segments: Pay-TV, Retail Wireless, and Broadband and Satellite Services. The Pay-TV segment business strategy is to be the best provider of video services in the United States by providing products with the best technology, outstanding customer service, and great value. The Retail Wireless segment offers Retail Wireless services as well as a competitive portfolio of wireless devices. The Broadband and Satellite Services segment business strategy is to maintain and improve leadership position and competitive advantage through development of technologies and services marketed to selected sectors within the consumer, enterprise and government markets globally. The company was founded by Charlie William Ergen, Candy Ergen, and James DeFranco in 1980 and is headquartered in Englewood, CO.

EchoStar Corp - Ordinary Shares - Class A

EchoStar Corp

EchoStar ($SATS) is highly active amid news of its strategic spectrum asset sales, particularly a recent agreement that includes a notable equity stake in SpaceX. This development has ignited community discussions, positioning EchoStar as a primary proxy for investors keen on SpaceX's future, though some express skepticism about the company's underlying fundamentals despite bullish analyst upgrades.

The Filecoin network achieves staggering economies of scale by allowing anyone worldwide to participate as storage providers. It also makes storage resemble a commodity or utility by decoupling hard-drive space from additional services. On this robust global market the price of storage will be driven by supply and demand, not corporate pricing departments, and miners will compete on factors like reputation for reliability as well as price.

Filecoin

Filecoin is experiencing a notable surge, driven by escalating demand for decentralized storage solutions across the expanding AI and Web3 sectors. The community highlights ongoing network upgrades that boost efficiency and a significant increase in network usage and storage deals, reinforcing Filecoin's crucial role within the growing DePIN ecosystem. Many investors are actively accumulating, anticipating further upside as the project continues to address critical data infrastructure requirements.

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<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>According to data from the CME FedWatch tool, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January is now at 14.9%, down from 23% a month ago.&nbsp;</li><li>The probability for a 25 bps cut in March remains relatively high, at 42.5%, compared to 38.5% a month ago.</li><li>According to the Fed’s dot-plot projections, the median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 3.4%, which is a quarter point lower than the current range of 3.5% and 3.75%.</li></ul>As 2025 draws to a close, investors are trying to decode where the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy is headed next.After holding rates steady for most of 2025 and resisting President Donald Trump’s calls for rate cuts, the central bank ended the year with three consecutive 25 basis point reductions in the policy rate.With the labor market cooling and inflation remaining above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%, markets are lowering their expectations of aggressive cuts in the coming year.<h2 class="st-heading-2">What Are Markets Considering?</h2>According to data from the CME FedWatch&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January is now at 14.9%, down from 23% a month ago.&nbsp;The probability for a 25 bps cut in March remains relatively high, at 42.5%, compared to 38.5% a month ago.However, the odds of the federal funds rate being in the 3% to 3.25% range, which implies a cumulative reduction of 50 bps, are considerably low, at 5.9%. This is down from 8.1% a month ago.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Economist’s Take</h2>Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, stated last week that cooling inflation gives the Federal Reserve more room to move the policy rate down further. Eventually, he expects additional easing that will take rates closer to the low-3% range.According to the Fed’s dot-plot projections, the median estimate for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 is 3.4%, which is a quarter point lower than the current range of 3.5% and 3.75%. This points to just one cut in 2026.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Fed’s Pivot</h2>The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) met eight times in 2025 and chose to keep rates unchanged in the first five meetings.The central bank noted in its first five meetings that the labor market conditions were “solid,” but changed its tone in the sixth meeting in September, with the FOMC statement stating that “job gains have slowed this year” in the last three meetings of the year. However, its tone on inflation was consistent throughout the year, with the central bank stating that it remained “somewhat elevated.”Inflation remained above the Fed’s long-term target of 2%, and the central bank expects it to stay above this level throughout 2026 as well as 2027.The Fed also ended its Quantitative Tightening (QT) program on December 1, bringing an end to a multi-year effort to reduce its balance sheet.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Growing Dissent</h2>Dissent among central bank officials has been growing. The first four FOMC meetings saw unanimous agreement among the committee's voting members on the rate policy, but since the fifth meeting, there has been dissent.Notable among the dissenters this year is Fed Governor Stephen Miran, who has voted for a 50 bps cut thrice since being sworn in to the position in September.During the December FOMC meeting, there were three dissenters against the central bank’s monetary policy action — while Miran wanted a larger 50 bps cut, Austan Goolsbee and Jeffrey Schmid wanted no cuts.According to a CNBC&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/10/the-fed-is-the-most-divided-its-been-in-more-than-a-decade.html">report</a>, this is the most divisive the Fed has been in the past six years.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Leadership Change Ahead</h2>Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s term is set to expire in May 2026. President Trump told reporters on Tuesday that he plans to announce his pick for the Fed Chair position sometime in January, after threatening to sue Powell for “gross incompetence,”&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.reuters.com/world/us/trump-threatens-sue-feds-powell-will-announce-replacement-next-month-2025-12-29/">according</a> to Reuters.There are two <a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/kevin-warsh-fed-chair-kalshi-after-pushback-against-kevin-hassett-trump/cLeJfHqREYv">frontrunners</a> for the Fed Chair role — White House National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett and former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, with Christopher Waller also in the running.Meanwhile, U.S. equities declined in Wednesday morning’s trade. At the time of writing, the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/SPY">SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF</a> (SPY), which tracks the S&amp;P 500 index, was down 0.35%; the Invesco QQQ Trust ETF (QQQ) fell 0.38%; and the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/DIA">SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average ETF Trust</a> (DIA) declined 0.35%. Retail sentiment around the S&amp;P 500 ETF on Stocktwits was in the ‘neutral’ territory.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/TLT">iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (TLT) was down 0.18% at the time of writing, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IEF">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) fell 0.1%.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/why-is-inbs-stock-rising-today/cL7BB78REzv">Why Is INBS Stock Rising Today?</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

In this photo illustration, The Federal Reserve System logo displayed on a smartphone. 

How Fed’s 2025 Pivot, QT Exit, And Rising Dissent Reshaped Rate Expectations This Year

After holding rates steady for most of 2025 and resisting President Donald Trump’s calls for rate cuts, the central bank ended the year with three consecutive 25 basis point reductions in the policy rate.

Equity

<ul class="summary-bullets"><li>Experts at ING Think stated in a recent note that they expect the Q4 GDP growth to be “considerably slower.”</li><li>The firm also expects a slowdown in consumer spending during the quarter.</li><li>Analysts say a mix of tepid fourth-quarter growth forecasts and deeper structural market forces is keeping long-term yields from collapsing.</li></ul>U.S. Treasury Yields were muted on Friday morning as investors returned to the markets in a holiday-shortened week, even as analysts expect muted growth in the fourth quarter.The benchmark 10-Year Treasury yield fell one basis point to 4.132%, while the 30-year yield gained one basis point to 4.801%. The 2-year Treasury yield declined two basis points to hover at 3.493% at the time of writing.Analysts say a mix of tepid fourth-quarter (Q4) growth forecasts and deeper structural market forces is keeping long-term yields from collapsing, reflecting macroeconomic caution and persistent term-premium pressures.“You can’t have inflation and growth running at this pace and expect 10-year yields to move much lower,” said Gregory Faranello, head of U.S. rates strategy at AmeriVet Securities, according to a&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cnbc.com/2025/12/26/treasury-yields-are-little-changed-as-traders-return-from-christmas-holiday.html">report</a> by CNBC.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Growth Slowdown Likely</h2>Analysts at ING Think stated in a recent note that they expect the Q4 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth to be “considerably slower,” following the third-quarter (Q3)&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/us-gdp-q3-december-2025/cLep8gzREuU">GDP surprise</a>.The firm tempered its expectations for Q4 GDP due to the 43-day-long U.S. government shutdown, and expects a slowdown in consumer spending as well during the quarter.“Expectations of cooling data probably explains the relatively muted market reaction with the 10Y Treasury yield only up 3bp on the day [of GDP report release] and Fed funds rate cut expectations for 2026 still holding above 50bp,” the firm said.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Rate Cut Outlook</h2>Jeremy Siegel, professor emeritus of finance at the University of Pennsylvania’s Wharton School of Business, on Tuesday stated that he expects cooling inflation to give the Federal Reserve more room to lower the policy rate further. He expects additional easing that will take rates closer to the low-3% range.According to data from the CME FedWatch&nbsp;<a class="st-link-external" target="_blank" rel="noopener noreferrer nofollow" href="https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html">tool</a>, the probability of a 25-basis-point rate cut in January is now at 17.7%, down from 22.1% a week ago.However, Siegel still does not see a collapse in longer yields even if the policy rate is lowered. “I do not expect that to automatically pull the 10-year down by the same magnitude. The long end is likely to remain anchored in the low-4% area as term premium, issuance, and structural forces keep longer yields from collapsing,” he said.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Entry Points To Become Attractive</h2>Analysts at Nuveen stated in their latest note that the entry points for Treasuries will become attractive going forward.“Risk premiums may widen further, with entry points likely to become more attractive over the coming quarters. Duration is likely to reassume its role as a growth hedge,” the firm said.It added that current yields present compelling opportunities for investors, while noting material downside risks to the U.S. economy. The firm said that tariffs are likely to compress consumer spending and weigh on business fixed investment, but it still does not have a recession as its base case.<h2 class="st-heading-2">Key Data</h2>While the earnings season is drawing to a close, investors will keep an eye on the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) minutes from the December meeting, scheduled to be released on Tuesday.Home sales data on Monday, and the S&amp;P Case-Shiller home price index on Tuesday will also be on investors’ radars next week.The weekly jobless claims report from the U.S. Department of Labor will also be keenly monitored.The&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/TLT">iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (TLT) was up 0.15% at the time of writing, while the&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/symbol/IEF">iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF</a> (IEF) was up 0.16%. Retail sentiment around the TLT ETF was in the ‘bullish’ territory.Also See:&nbsp;<a href="https://stocktwits.com/news-articles/markets/equity/is-the-stock-market-open-today-after-christmas/cLeUEoAREw0">Is The Stock Market Open Today? NYSE, Nasdaq Trading Hours For December 26</a>For updates and corrections, email newsroom[at]stocktwits[dot]com.

US Treasury Yields | Representative image

Treasury Yields Hold Steady As Wall Street Braces For ‘Considerably Slower’ Q4 GDP

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield fell one basis point to 4.132%, while the 30-year yield gained one basis point to hover at 4.801%.

November Inflation Cools: ETF Strategies to Play 

Cooling November inflation revives rate-cut bets. Investors eye TLT, GLD, SPYG and high-income ETFs like VYM, SDIV, KNG and DIV.

Better U.S. Treasury Bond ETF: Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund vs. iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Key PointsThe Vanguard Long-Term Treasury Fund (VGLT) and iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) focus on slightly different U.S. Treasury bonds...

Analysts revamp forecasts as gold prices hit wall

Gold prices soared to all-time highs this year due to economic worries fueled by job losses and the tariffs-driven trade war. The precious metal has risen over 50% year-to-date, including a 20% surge...

US Government Shutdown Puts These ETFs in Focus

The U.S. government shut down on Oct. 1, 2025, as last-minute talks failed. ETFs like TLT, XLV and PSCC hog attention. 

ETF Strategies to Follow as Powell Hints at September Rate Cuts

Fed Chair Powell signaled a September rate cut, triggering rallies in stocks, bonds and cryptos. ETFs like GOVT, SDIV, SPYG, IBIT, VNQ and XLU are set to gain. 

ETF Asset Report of June 2025

QQQ, IBIT and GLD led ETF inflows in June as tech gains, crypto momentum and safe-haven demand shaped investor bets.

Gross predicts little bull market for stocks, bear for bonds

Investing.com -- Billionaire investor Bill Gross shared his market outlook on Tuesday through a post on social media platform X, offering predictions for both stock and bond markets.

Israel's Strikes on Iran Boost Safe Haven ETF Demand 

BlackRock Institutional Trust Company N.A. - iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF

Yes — Rates Move Meaningfully Lower

Short-Term Dip, No Lasting Impact

No — Mostly Political Noise

Other – Comment Below

President Trump says he’s directing $200 billion into mortgage bond purchases to bring down rates and improve housing affordability. With questions around execution, authority, and real market impact, do you think this move will actually lower mortgage rates in 2026?

Will Trump’s Mortgage Bond Plan Actually Lower Rates in 2026?

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