ALT Altimmune Inc

$ALT Today most are frustrated over the share price. That is valid. The market does not want to put value on pemvi. That is obserable. How do you break this cycle? You force the valuation in a nondilutive way. 2 step strategy 1-Suppose ALT exchanges 50M of those warrants for future royalties, similar to what Immunic did. That eliminates 50M potential shares but also gives up $150M in possible exercise proceeds. 2-ALT separately secures $150M upfront from a royalty investor in exchange for 3% of future pemvidutide sales or $50M for 1% The royalty doesn't automatically value ALT at billions, but it gives the market an independent financial benchmark to evaluate. Currently market value is almost ZERO or roughly 22M. 50M for 1% multiplied by 100 = $5B (Thank you royalty deal). This does not give instant value but now gives - An external valuation reference -Financing without issuing common shares -More bargaining power -Most likely a lot more than 22M current market value. -Win for us

$ALT I’m not stuck here. I’m currently moderately under water with the recent market slide, but can walk away with negligible wounds at any time. I invest in science and fundamentals and forge a forward-looking POV because it keeps me clear of emotional impatience (a natural human response). “When the going gets tough, the tough get going” is a trite saying, but very much applies to my philosophy in life - and investing. “…the tough get going” has many outcomes - to me, it doesn’t mean to dig in, it means to reassess and shit or get off the pot. I’ve reassessed here multiple times and each time, I dig in deeper based on facts and probable outcome analysis. This is why I don’t ballyhoo often and why I’ll see the endgame. I have the patience and runway. Some of you do not. This post is for the ones on the fence who have been through the battles and deserve their cut. I want all retailers out - except for a couple handfuls of you reading this. Trust the process and rejoice. 🤓

Once $ALT and $SLS do their thing one way or another, I am getting TFO of biotech investing. I very much look forward to having boring investments.

$ALT Pt 1- Back in April Altimmune issued 75m warrants with a 3 dollar strike. Leerink and Barclays were the two main banks involved in that financing. Those 75m warrants are a massive overhang compared to the roughly 194m common shares Altimmune has outstanding. What caught my attention is the Immunic deal. Leerink originally helped place Immunics warrants and then later came back and helped structure a recap where institutional warrant holders surrendered more than 51m warrants in exchange for a 5% synthetic royalty on future drug sales. At the same time Immunic raised fresh capital. Now look at what is happening with Altimmune. Altimmune still has 75 million 3 dollar warrants outstanding. The stock just dropped considerably and is now around 2.67, which puts the entire warrant tranche out of the money. Altimmune then had a private 1 on 1 meeting day at Barclays.

$ALT Pt 2- Then after the market closed that same day, 5,129,684 shares traded in one large block at 2.67. Check this math, -RA Capital has around 6.5 million ALT warrants. -Viking has around 6.7 million ALT warrants. A long dated 3 dollar warrant with ALT trading around 2.67 could reasonably have a delta somewhere around 0.75 to 0.80 depending on volatility and time remaining. 6.5 million warrants times a 0.789 delta equals roughly 5.13m shares. 6.7 million warrants times a 0.765 delta also equals roughly 5.13m shares. The after hours block was 5.12m “ish” shares. The block was almost exactly the right size to represent a hedge tied to one of these large warrant positions. If an institution owns millions of warrants, they can hedge that exposure by shorting common stock. If those warrants are then surrendered in exchange for a royalty, that warrant exposure disappears and they would no longer need the short stock hedge. They would then need to buy those shares back.

Jan 2027 $ALT - over 100k call contracts outstanding - upside exposure on ~10 million shares, nearly 5% of the company. 18k of them sit at $20 strike alone. With 51.75M shares short, can we get one litle positive news tidbit or catalyst to flip the ignition switch??

$ALT Novo has said they are focused on "bolt-on" acquisitions + their top priority is the liver and their CMO raves about glucagon specifically. I can't think of a better fit than Pemvi...

$ALT A golf tourney I played in caused me to miss the carnage today, although I took advantage of an alert - finding the time between fireball shots and swinging for the fences to add 1K shares. Retro-perusing the board, I see the termites predictably exited the woodwork on a down day. This barrage of ‘doom and gloom’ was as coordinated as the short take down of the bio sector this last week. I laughed. A lot. Anyway, happy to join the 5 digit club. 🤓

$ALT Monday Night Musing. 89Bio hit their 52wk low 5 months before their buyout. Altimmune hit their 52wk low 5 months ago. Take that any way you’d like. 😉

$ALT A: “I’ll answer—I’ll answer in a slightly roundabout way... regarding Altimune first... we had agreed with our partner not to name the partnership, and we’ve stuck to that. While some details have been made public, we’ve decided to abide by the terms of our contract, which stipulate that we don’t mention the specific name of the partnership—even though they may have mentioned it on their end. … Now, to give you a bit more information on where we stand regarding this specific feasibility study: as we’ve stated several times, the feasibility phase is complete. The results were quite interesting. Right now, we’re essentially waiting for a strategic decision on the partner's next steps—not just regarding their specific product, but concerning their technology in general—before moving forward…. So we are indeed somewhat waiting for their feedback, but they themselves are engaged in a broader strategic review regarding the technology and the investment aspect.”

$ALT Altimmune now appears to be doing back-to-back 1x1 management meetings, Barclays on Oct. 6 and Truist on Oct. 8 yet neither event was disclosed on the company’s public investor calendar. WTF

$ALT one day… down the road…. we will hear pemvi commercials on tv and it will remind us of all of these “fun” times.

$ALT PCYC was in a dollar range around 2010. Everyone was frustrated back then. Abbvie ended up acquiring them for 21B which was $261/share. Unfortunately, I had reduced my position drastically because I was worried and disappointed as well. I’m not making that mistake again with ALT. Just saying! Do your DD and if you believe in the science, invest long term and sit back. GLA!

$ALT The company is now valued at $500M MC… basically for the cash they have on hand… Science, Staff, Patents, etc is currently valued for $0. There is no way they will accept a $1B-$2B BO offer (100%-300% premium). It needs external validation from a BP to rerate to a $3B-$4B MC… from there we can eventually think about a BO… but for now… forget about it. Only a partnership with a BP can rerate this company. GIA would drag the same issue even longer and possibly more painful…

$ALT Not been adding for a loong time, added two days ago and today. Getting avg down, now ready for action but still got patience. Im convinced they are in talks now. If we dont see any insider purchase after upcoming ER, thats the signal you want. Keep in mind, discussions can take some months up to a year before a deal is made. Been busy a lot of things lately, but will be more active in 1-2 weeks.

$ALT That really sounds like a quiet period… unannounced 1x1… presentation not updated… HQ move? EOP2 meeting possibly this month… AASLD next month…

$ALT Tutes are controlling any move to the upside and artificially holding the stock price down as they continue to accumulate. The data outputs continue to be positive, management has never sounded more positive on the calls, cash on hand is adequate for p3 Mash and their continued reaffirmation that non-dilutive financing is available for any future needs leads me to conclude that the risk/reward at a MC of $500M is worth the wait. It’s painful to wait but that’s the nature of biotech investing.

$ALT Everyone sees $2.67 and calls it dead. I see a compressed biotech waiting on one real catalyst. I’m holding the core. When this wakes up, I don’t think the move will be subtle.

$ALT Analyst pressed Adocia for being so secretive about Altimmune partnership! Mathieu-William Gilbert Chief Financial Officer - Chief Operating Officer responds with some pretty eye-opening comments (see my recent posts) Altimmune fine with AdOral Pemvi alone? Altimmune want to acquire AdOral tech for future peptides Altimmune want to bring in third party BP to help fund? When shall we know the answer to these? 🧃 🧃 🧃 🧃

$ALT Very interesting: today’s 52-week low almost exactly matches the previous 52w low and likely also today’s current cash on hand, as others here have pointed out, too. In my view, this makes a strong bottom and a bounce very likely. Either way, buying a dollar for 80 cents looks pretty attractive.