TriGuy8542
$TMDX
40 flights in the past 24 hours and an estimate of 191M for the quarter.
The tracker estimate (last 4Q’s) when low has been very close (~1%) and when higher (~3%)
We know that an existing large transplant customer is now using Transmedics logistics services. How does the estimate reconcile this?
Q2 split was 58.5% product and 41.5% service, roughly 3:2 ratio.
Jury DCD liver and heart both up mid 20’s, August liver up mid 20’s and heart down mid 20’s. Let’s call heart flat and liver up mid 20’s.
Based on this back of the envelope math for liver going up mid 20’s and an increase for logistics revenue, what might we get?
143.8 (Q3 2025) * 1.2 + $143.8 * .1 * .4 =
178.3M or a 6.7% difference from estimate
*used 10% of volume to account for large customer and 40% for increased revenue
Simply because flight tracker doesn’t make this new assumption.
Curious on what others think, it’s still 24% growth YoY for a seasonally bad Q and we are halfway through the last month.
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