KavaStocks
$CRWV $NBIS $APLD Elon says the debt markets have pretty much shut off for anyone without substantial revenue outside AI data centers, and that the 200-plus neoclouds are headed for "guppy-level death and consolidation." Some will make it through, not many. In the same post he mentions SpaceX just closed $40 billion in GPU debt, then follows up to let everyone know he isn't buying any of the companies he just wrote off. "Pointless," he says.
So yeah, he's not wrong. There are over two hundred of these companies and plenty of them won't last long enough to get consolidated. Anyone who had a fish tank as a kid knows how guppies go. All of that was true when the market closed Friday, before the guy selling compute out of a rocket company showed up Sunday night to point out the tank was getting crowded.
The boards are reacting like this is news, and like anything with a data center in the description is apparently the same company. CoreWeave and Nebius rent out GPUs. IREN does the same out of campuses it owns. Cipher and Applied Digital build the buildings and collect the rent, which is how Applied Digital ends up dragged into the same panic as CoreWeave, one of its own tenants. A GPU cloud fighting for financing and the landlord it pays rent to don't break the same way. Not every fish in the tank is a guppy.
The man who just borrowed $40 billion on the strength of two other businesses says it's about to get rough for anyone without one. Fair enough. Act surprised, sell sell sell. Microsoft, Google, and Amazon all report this week and will tell us what they're actually spending. That seems like a better place to get capex guidance than the guy competing for the business.
2
54
