CMMB Chemomab Therapeutics Ltd - ADR

$CMMB My Investment Rationale. Disclaimer: NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE. I am long $CMMB so consider my views to be biased.

$CMMB I think many here are making a mistake in thinking Scipher and PIPE investors are different entities and that PIPE investors may back-out or convince Scipher to agree to different terms. They are the same people and till they have enough votes in-favor of the merger, they would not care about the stock price. Scipher/PIPE investors will not back out of this deal as they have a much larger pre-existing economic interest in getting Scipher recapitalized and completing the merger. The Scipher holders who receive the 68% pre-PIPE merger allocation are not the old common/preferred shareholders; those securities are cancelled for no consideration. The 6.8M merger shares go to holders of the 2026 convertible notes, and they are also the PIPE investors % shareholding of these guys of $SCIP: 68% pre-PIPE 73% post $30M PIPE 77% post $15M PIPE warrant exercise (if they do it. Doubt they would if prices remain this depressed, coz the exercise price is $7.5 per SCIP shares, current price is $3.18)

$CMMB NEW CONFIRMED FACTS 50,000 PrismRA tests — updated from 45,000 mentioned earlier. Growing faster than previously disclosed. 30+ RA clinical sites from the PREDICT study — Scipher has an existing clinical network ready to enroll Phase 2 patients immediately. IND submission H2 2026 — they are submitting the RA IND this year, before merger close. This is significant — it demonstrates the RA program is real and advancing independently. THE PSC LANGUAGE — FOURTH CONSECUTIVE STATEMENT Adi Mor said: "it is important to emphasize that PSC, a potential lethal disease with no FDA-approved drugs, remains an important opportunity for nebokitug, potentially via partnering."  The Wainwright presentation confirms the deal is proceeding, the RA thesis is credible, and management continues to publicly signal PSC partnership availability for the fourth consecutive time

$CMMB Another way of looking at this is that the 69 biotech they state in the S-4 could literally be an email to a contact list of a BP and then counting that as 1. Maybe even "Are you interested in participating and funding PSC P3 for a shot at getting royalities" and then getting zero replies. Or a "Are your company interested in PSC" and then getting a "no, we are not currently seeking PSC opportunities" and then Leerink move on to the next target Lets be honest here: 69 communication attempts over 2 years is desperate high for any biotech. I dont think any other biotech have ever done that before. I actually think the board in Chemotech have looked at their email "sent folder" and then counted the emails they sent, just to justify taking a crap deal with Scipher, and they can write that down in the S-4 and hide behind that every time an investor ask them if they have done proper research.

$CMMB would consider buying back here if they ditched this Scipher deal. Scipher can't get any customers so merge with a bio company just to have one - which in itself is fairly damning. They could have got more going the SPAC route but even those vehicles didn't touch it. Being cash strapped and ignoring a ph3 to chase some ph2 for the next 7-8 years is lunacy.

$CMMB 25k more incoming at market open. Fair warning for the 3rd time to all my Chemomabbians!

$CMMB "I do not understand why there is this support for the merger. If we say a company has an ambitious future project but no money, that is a good thing. If it has a lot of money but no future project, that is also a good thing. But Scipher has neither a future project nor money. We have already conceded that they sold PSC after the merger—what will they do with the money? They will cover their operating losses and burn money on RA, whose success rate is low because CCL24 is a secondary factor, not primary as in PSC, until the money runs out. A failed project. Another point: you say that CMMB did not find a partner or a licensing deal. So after adding $40 million on top, will it find one? Whoever is interested in a partnership or licensing should come forward before the merger and before the $40 million is adde

$CMMB There was additonal 6k traded right after that screenshot yesterday. Meaning £12k was traded yesterday. Today we saw whopping $28K in volume for the entire day lol. You have to have an extremely low position here to be able to sell. So nobody is selling. But nobody is buying either. A stalemate. Im comfortable holding here. Hope they are working behind the scenes to cook up something here.

$CMMB There are recurring market patterns that tend to appear, especially in small companies with strong assets. When an acquisition is being pursued behind the scenes, there are often signs that appear beforehand. The small company may go through a period of sharp setbacks, negative news, poor communication from management, uncertainty, long delays, and decisions that seem illogical. The result is that retail investors become frustrated and sell their shares, while affiliated funds and quiet accumulators gradually build larger positions. Any unexplained rise in the stock price could attract scrutiny and legal concerns, so quiet accumulation accompanied by negative sentiment, uncertainty, and fear can sometimes encourage smaller shareholders to exit their positions. I hope this is the scenario we are dealing with in CMMB, as many of the characteristics appear to match.

$CMMB Did you all know that Chemomab only did an initial outreach regarding RA/ILD/SSc to biotechs in August 2023, when they had very little to show for in research and pipeline? And that everything right after that was solely on PSC towards the 69 biotechs? Did you also know they could have just researched prior deals with BPs in RA/SSc/ILD and they could see they completely failed us and their owners by doing NOTHING to get buyers? They could have run a new process in beginning of 2026 with all of these diseases in mind. They had completed Phase 2, regulator-aligned Phase 3 for PSC, a second open IND, and a market that had just paid cash for earlier fibrosis antibodies. They BUTCHED the entire process. They have not done their fiducial obligation. This is very serious.

$CMMB -The management/board failed in this regard and it appears to be a breach of their fiduciary responsibility to shareholders.

$CMMB It is possible that they used an outdated and ineffective approach when dealing with major pharmaceutical companies, one that does not reflect how strategic transactions are conducted in today's market. In an attempt to save money, combined with overconfidence and poor judgment, they may have failed to run a proper competitive process. That could be one of the reasons we find ourselves in this situation today. If that is what actually happened, then the issue is not the asset itself, but management's failure to use the right advisors, the right process, and the right channels to maximize shareholder value

$CMMB Is the RA opportunity being valued appropriately? The more I look at the Scipher transaction, the more I think shareholders should be asking about the process used to value nebokitug/RA. CMMB is effectively being valued at ~$48M in the proposed $150M combination, with CMMB shareholders owning ~32% of the combined company. Now compare that with some relevant partnering precedents: 🔹 Lilly / Rigel — Ocadusertib (RIPK1) • RA Phase 2-ready • $125M upfront • Up to $835M in milestones • Royalties on future sales 🔹 Gilead / Galapagos — Filgotinib • RA Phase 2-stage asset • ~$725M upfront/equity consideration • Up to $1.35B in milestones • Additional royalty/profit-sharing economics 🔹 Broader Phase 2 licensing market • Reported 2024 median upfront: ~$45M across therapeutic areas Obviously, these aren't perfect apples-to-apples comparisons. Different mechanisms, data packages, market conditions and clinical risks matter.

$CMMB here are the issues: 1) The S-4 showed us that the Scipher business is garbage. They have $500K in annual revenues not the $10 million that they led everyone to believe in 2024. 2) Scipher has debt and no cash. Scipher is already burning $10 million of the $30 million PIPE. What they are spending it on, who knows?! it could drugs and hookers for all we know. It certainly is not being spent on a Phase 2 RA trial. 3) The S-4 showed no real serious intention to do a Phase 2 RA trial with noone on the company leadership who knows anything about runnning a phase 2 RA trial. 4) Scipher over played their hand with CMMB. Scipher is a shit show. Scipher is smoking crack if they think Scipher is worth $100 million (65% of $150 million). CMMB should have at least 50% of this new company, not 32%. All of the value is in the Nebokitug asset not the crap Scipher diagnostic business.

$CMMB Worst-case scenario I will bag-hold my position to 2028 ph2 readout. If it works out it's a multi-B TAM. Zero or hero situation. May even get lucky and FDA accepts an AA pathway eventually in few years and we get that CVR. I feel this should rebound towards the closure. The drop is likely panic selling (at least no news so far)

$CMMB With the CVR probability low the thesis now predominantly depends on RA. Things to watch: - Timely IND submission - Final PIPE size (upsizing to $40-50M would probably be a bullish indication) - Timing for RA ph2 readout vs runway - Litigation with Quest (more news in 2027).

$CMMB Good luck to those holding. I closed at just +17%. Disapointed I didnt close at $2.8+. S4 content invalidates my thesis. Could get a spike before merger but not willing to hold sth I no longer understand. - CVR seems dead for now. Noone will proceed with FDA asking for a hard outcomes trial. - $10M of the $30M PIPE already gone so that Scipher doesnt go bankrupt. Hopefully, PIPE will be upsized to $50M - $10M litigation risk. Good institutions but probably did this merger just to save their prior investment (Scipher was moving towards bankruptcy)

$CMMB Another one that has a proposed merger that is trading below valuation is NEUP . It announced merger w/ Scancell only a few weeks after CMMB announced. It also has not posted S-4 yet and intends to close merger before EOY. CMMB is not the only ones dragging their feet on an S-4, apparently.

$CMMB In CVR watchlist. CVR potential doesn’t sound that good. Price drop significantly - Pricing for reverse merger failure? What’s the company’s option if the reverse merger doesn’t go through? Cash looks low.

$CMMB I'm selling 50k to play some other tickers, will add it back next week if it's still in 1.60s. I'm doing it slowly so far the price is stable for all the bulls. Someone seems to be eating up the shares which is a good sign.