JohnTill
$CAAS Management has historically guided conservatively. H2 is seasonally much stronger than H1. The $850M in 2026 revenue projects previously given now looks more like a floor after H1, while $860–885M is becoming increasingly realistic.
H2 could easily produce:
• $100M+ gross profit
• $35M+ net income
• $1.15+ EPS
That would put full-year 2026 around:
• $2.00-2.20 EPS, or roughly 2x earnings at the current price
• $15-16 per share in tangible assets
• $60M+ in cash flow, especially with much of the Brazil-related capex front-loaded
Those are absurd numbers. This is why the lack of a capital-return announcement is so disappointing. Either this is coming soon or they are letting this get weak for a buyout.
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