AXSM Axsome Therapeutics Inc

$AXSM common sense tells me that we will easily compete with rexulti. We will easily compete with trintellix for MDD. If I’m a dr and someone needs relief from depression - do I give them the one that takes 4-6 weeks to kick in and had worse side effects ? With ADD do I give them an anti-psychotic with a black box warning and go thru the motions of having to prove to govt I have no choice - or do I give Auvelity - no black box warning ? And no proof needed

$AXSM Axsome: Auvelity for major depressive disorder and agitation in Alzheimer's dementia Weekly TRx grew +1% w/w to 21,200, +39% Y/Y, and rolling 12-wk +36% Y/Y New prescriptions (NRx) / TRx were 59% for the week

$AXSM My two major holdings are axsm and RCL. RCL plummeted 25 percent ($222) in 2 months. Today it’s $295. Thats how quickly these stocks can recover . There was no good reason for the plunge. Many other stocks took big plunges as well (fortunately I don’t own them ). The market has been wacky. It won’t take long for AXSM to recover IMHO.

$AXSM I've been looking more closely at the Auvelity weekly IQVIA numbers, and I'm actually a little less concerned about the raw numbers than I was, although there is still a significant question that needs answering. Through the first 12 weeks of Q3, IQVIA shows 239,600 Auvelity TRx versus 216,648 during the first 12 weeks of Q2. That's about 10.6% sequential growth. In fact, Q3 has already exceeded the entire Q2 IQVIA total of 235,448 with one week still remaining. So Auvelity isn't really flat quarter over quarter. The bigger question is why we aren't seeing more acceleration considering the ADA launch and the substantially expanded sales force. One thing that stands out when looking at the historical data is the difference between IQVIA prescriptions and the numbers Axsome ultimately reports. In Q2, IQVIA showed 235,448 TRx while Axsome reported approximately 266,000. That means IQVIA captured only about 88.5% of the company-reported number. (Continued)

$AXSM I’m waiting for the ER to see Auvelity’s sales performance. As I’ve mentioned, now that Auvelity is approved for ADA, I believe that if an ex-US licensing deal isn’t announced, a sale of the company is likely. At this point, I’m simply waiting to see how things unfold. Either an ex-US deal or a sale are in the works. There’s not much more for me to add until we get some meaningful news.

$AXSM Class today we learned about the word shenanigans which was aptly demonstrated for us. On Monday we will learn about the words fortitude and conviction. Enjoy Halloween and be safe.

$AXSM as CEO doesn’t need the money, I’m thinking it’s all about power. He wants to be recognized and he wants to make this company into a respected, successful leader in the neuro space . Remember when out of the blue he sent out press release saying he valued the company at $16 bil (or whatever it was )? Why did he do that ? Were there low ball suitors and he was making it known not to bother with offers ? Would he sell? I’m not so sure. Would have to be a crazy offer IMHO. He’s made some missteps and he’s made some brilliant moves . Street seems to think he blew the launch . Would he sell now and go down as a failed CEO? I don’t think so. I know of no other Haitian CEO out there. He has something to prove ? I have not lost faith in him. I remain bullish. And patient.

$AXSM Auvelity is the second highest medication on drugs. com based on ratio of positive to negative reviews. Couple of insights: - Auvelity is the only non-controlled substance of the top medications. Most other drugs are opium and methamphetamine derivatives - no wonder get good reviews :-) - real life experience mirrored clinical trials. The most common feedback from both patients and clinicians is the rapid onset of action, often within days, unlike traditional antidepressants take weeks/months - Auvelity continues to grow market share in a crowded field of at least 60 approved meds with multiple cheap generics. While there are questions on ADA ramp (as there were in 2023 on MDD), i believe we will see even stronger uptake in this market simply because it's a superior and safer drug in a desperately needed space.

$AXSM Watch the pric3 of $AXSM move UP with very high buying volume prior to the close of trading today in anticipation of the conference call be for the open next Monday!!!

$AXSM Those who say "biotech isn't for the faint of heart" will look on today's AXSM action to prove it beyond any doubt.

$AXSM note point #3 in a recent WF report. Fingers crossed all those samples will drive recurring maintenance prescriptions going forward.

$AXSM Axsome: Auvelity for major depressive disorder and agitation in Alzheimer's dementia count was 21,400 Weekly TRx grew +1% w/w, +35% Y/Y, and rolling 12-wk +36% Y/Y (Exhibit 10) New prescriptions (NRx) / TRx were 58% for the week

$AXSM My gut tells me that a long time institutional holder didn’t like what they saw from management recently. Basically over-promising results andsales disarray. The SP was way ahead of itself with a higher multiple than similar biotech, so they used derivatives to help blunt the pain as they sold shares. Others may have hopped aboard the short train, although there was barely a budge in open interest from August. The rout is overdone imo As the company is not imploding as it appears. Painful nonetheless

$AXSM this is a $10B stock until sales prove otherwise. It was way ahead of itself in the $250's, and it started falling because of that. As it fell towards fmv, reasonable concerns emerged about the launch because of the weekly numbers, and selling accelerated. At this point the selling momentum was significant, and has still not fully stopped (although it is slowing) at these levels. It's wild and brutal because that is the nature of this jungle. If something changed in the fundamentals we would know that. I hope these are just character building times we will look back on :-) good luck!

$AXSM I know this board focuses (as I do often) on day-to-day share prices and the recent beat down. Market has repriced this company to standard fundamentals, such as earnings and P/E. BUT if Q3 yields 250 M revenue or 1 billion annualized after four years of Auvelity, what might happen with the doubling effect of ADA indication and other additions to the lineup? Two years 1B more=2B revenue. 4years $4B. With an expense plateau a little over 1B and 52M shares, not hard to see how AXSM reaches earnings of $20 per share by 2 to 3 years and $40 a share by 4-5 years. Conservative PE of 20 gives stock price of $400 in 2 to 3 years and $800 4-5years. Is this fantasy or a real possibility? Even if it’s somewhere in between, I’ll take it!

$AXSM here some good news I think: RBC Capital has directly addressed AXSM’s selloff and the disappointing Auvelity prescription trends. RBC maintains Outperform and $295 price target In an October 14 research update, RBC reiterated its Outperform rating and $295 target, representing approximately 89% upside from yesterday’s $156.32 closing price. More importantly, RBC offered an explanation for the unusually weak stock performance. * AXSM declined approximately 28% over the preceding month, compared to 6% for the XBI biotech index. * Disappointing RX trends have contributed to the selloff. * RBC attributes the RX weakness to seasonality and medication-sampling dynamics, rather than a fundamentally unsuccessful Alzheimer’s agitation launch. * RBC continues to estimate a $2.3 billion Alzheimer’s agitation revenue opportunity by 2035. * The firm considers AXSM materially undervalued and believes reduced expectations create an opportunity for Q3 results to exceed forecast

$AXSM In a report released today, Jason Gerberry from Bank of America Securities maintained a Buy rating on Axsome Therapeutics, with a price target of $276.00. Gerberry covers the Healthcare sector, focusing on stocks such as Merck & Company, Eli Lilly & Co, and Jazz Pharmaceuticals... Gerberry has an average return of 18.5% and a 58.66% success rate on recommended stocks.

$AXSM wondering whether a rotation out of tech and AI with a bursting of their bubble, will benefit Pharma/AXSM? Especially if Q3 meets expectations or certainly if it exceeds what seems to have been greatly diminished expectations?!

$AXSM We have entered a new phase—much like many others over the past nine years—that puts our patience to the test. Yet, as has always been the case, we will overcome it and reach new milestones. I am certain of this; AXSM has far too many irons in the fire, and it has consistently proven itself to be a serious company—it’s not about to go belly-up. I look forward to November 2nd, when the facts will reveal exactly where we stand—whether we should remain calm and patient, or head for the exits. I don’t believe the latter is likely to happen, however.

$AXSM The more I think about it the more logical it becomes. HT has built his billionaire status primarily on the enormous potential of 1 drug - Auvelity. There are other drugs approved and others in the pipeline but Auvelity drives the narrative. There is a long runway of patent exclusivity for both Depression and Agitation but it is 1 drug. Why would he not sell the company and monetize his multi billionaire status while still collecting substantial royalties on Auvelity sales. One never knows when a better drug comes along and cannabalizes the existing drug. BP would accelerate sales of Auvelity [superior sales force, would sell overseas, and could take out enormous costs]. Finally the many employees who built this company would capitalize in a big way. Why risk it.